A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
